COVID-19 will likely become a seasonal disease, CDC director says

COVID-19 is expected to become a seasonal sickness that ebbs and flows with the weather, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC)Trusted Source Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky.

After all, several coronaviruses that cause the common cold have been known to strike in the winter and then fade away in the summer.

Other respiratory diseases, such as influenza, strep throat, and respiratory syncytial virus, are similar (RSV). These viruses are contagious all year, although they peak in the winter.

According to epidemiologists, stronger controls, such as lockdowns and capacity limits at certain locations, are unlikely to be reinstated. During future surges, however, masking and physical separation may be recommended.

Will COVID-19 become a seasonal disease?

COVID-19 appears to have some seasonality, according to Dr. Shruti Gohil, associate medical director of epidemiology and infection prevention at UCI Health.

As we've seen over the last two years, COVID-19 instances have risen during the winter months, when cold and flu virus transmission is often highest.

According to some research, hot and humid environments reduce the survivability of the coronavirus, but colder climes with lower humidity levels may aid the virus spread.

Dr. Bernadette Boden-Albala, MPH, DrPH, director and founding dean of the University of California, Irvine's Program in Public Health, said, "Research is still evolving, but there is some evidence that the virus dies when exposed to certain levels of UV light, making it harder to spread during the sunny summer months as opposed to winter."

Evidence also suggests that places with high levels of air pollution are associated with greater rates of COVID-19 cases, as well as disease severity and death.

It's also crucial to think about how our actions affect the transmission of respiratory viruses throughout the year.

"During the colder months, we spend more time indoors, where the virus spreads more quickly, with less alternatives for outside leisure activities," Boden-Albala told Healthline.

We are more likely to transmit respiratory viruses when we spend more time indoors since we are in closer touch with others.

Despite this, evidence shows that COVID-19 spreads to variable degrees throughout the year.

"It's also obvious that COVID isn't limited to the winter months and can arise at any time of year," Gohil said.

What will happen if the number of COVID-19 cases rises?

According to Gohil, switching to an endemic phase of COVID-19 — when the disease reaches a level of predictability and stability — does not rule out the possibility of new outbreaks, variations, and random spikes in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

Once COVID-19 becomes endemic, it's uncertain how many cases and hospitalizations we'll see each year.

"Right now, it's difficult to say since we haven't reached the degree of stability in cases where we can accurately define a baseline level," Boden-Albala explained.

In addition, epidemiologists are studying how prior illness and immunization affect infection, hospitalization, and death rates in the general population.

According to Boden-Albala, public health specialists will utilize disease modeling methods to develop fresh estimates about how the virus will spread in the future.

If new varieties emerge that test the population's immunity imparted through earlier infection and vaccination, some limitations, such as face masks and physical separation, may be reinstated.

Stricter lockdowns, such as school and workplace closures, are unlikely to be reinstated.

It's unclear whether and how the coronavirus will change and evolve. For the time being, epidemiologists advise that we follow vaccination recommendations and keep an eye on local and national guidelines to reduce the risk of future outbreaks and limitations.

“We anticipate new seasons of increased cases and, yes, some restrictions may need to be put back into place, at least in modified form, to meet the needs of any given uptick,” Gohil said.

The Bottom Line

COVID-19 is expected to become a seasonal sickness that ebbs and flows with the weather, according to Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC.

During the winter, most respiratory viruses, including the other coronaviruses that cause the common cold, are at their peak.

Scientists are keeping a close eye on how previous infections and vaccinations may affect case and hospitalization rates in future outbreaks.

Though tighter restrictions, such as lockdowns and school closures, are unlikely to reappear, epidemiologists warn that in future outbreaks, some mitigations, like as face masks and physical separation, may be suggested.